周二A股和港股均放量大漲。這標志著A股和港股為期三個多月的調整大概率結束，市場對未來不確定因素的預期已較充分，無論上證指數還是恒生指數估值都處在全球較低水平。A股漲幅居前的行業是休閑服務、食品飲料和非銀金融，港股漲幅領先的是非必需消費、科技和金融行業。北上資金凈流入217億人民幣，為滬深股通開通以來凈流入最高的一天。南下資金凈流入78.6億港幣，連續第十個交易日保持凈流入。
什么推動美元貶值？與A股大漲相對應的是美元指數再次創下1月以來的新低。美元指數自5月18日跌破90大關后（我們對此的分析請見美元指數跌破90意味著什么？），周二終于跌破5月18日的低點達到89.6957，離1月的低點89.4167僅一步之遙。如果跌破1月低點，則前低是2018年2月的低點88.5685。這個低點如果再跌破，下一個低點是2014年5月的79.0691。美元指數能否一再下挫不僅與歐元、日元以及英鎊的走勢有關，而且與美元儲備貨幣地位和作為世界貿易主要交易結算工具的使用有關。截至2020年底，在世界整體外匯儲備中，以美元計價的資產占比已降至59%，連續第5年下降，創25年以來最低水平。美元計價資產占比最高時為2001年，曾超過70%，但自此以后下降。按照國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的分析，美元計價資產的份額創紀錄新低，短期來看，是由于美元貶值導致——截至2020年12月7日，美元指數較年內高點下跌了11.5%，較年初下跌了5.8%；從長期看，這體現了各國央行正在將外匯儲備逐步從美元轉向其他資產。人民幣截止2020年底占全球儲備貨幣比例為2.25%。過去十年，歐元在國際貿易結算中地位逐步提升，導致美元結算比例從本世紀初的70%下跌到38.43%，歐元占比為37.13%。而人民幣占全球貿易結算的比例不到2%。人民幣年初以來對美元升值2%。美元貶值和人民幣升值利好人民幣資產。
美股微跌。美聯儲內部對何時縮減債券購買規模有分歧，有的認為經濟仍處在疫情狀態下，不應考慮該議題，而有的提出下個月就應討論該議題。
On Tuesday both A-share and HK market rallied on heavy volume. This signals that the 3-month correction for A-share and HK market might conclude. The valuation of both A-share and HK market is at the lowest levels around the globe. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and non-bank financials rose the most while in HK market discretionary consumption, tech and financials rose the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 21.7 billion, which is the highest daily net inflow since Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect started trading.South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.86 billion, which was the tenth day net inflow in a row.
What factors prompt the US dollar depreciation? The relative strength of US dollar to the currencies of other major developed countries determines the US dollar trend. But the long-term determining factors for US dollar should be its reserve currency position and how much it is used in global trade. At the end of 2020 the assets valued in US dollar comprised 59%of the total foreign reserve assets globally. This percentage had fallen for five years in a row and was the lowest level in 25 years. International Monetary Fund pointed out that this falling percentage was due to the depreciation of the US dollar in the short term and the efforts of central banks in the world to diversify reserve currencies in the long term. As a contrast, RMB was 2.25% of the reserve currencies in the world. Over the last 10 years, Euro rose fast as a trading settlement currency and now takes 37.13% of global trade. The percentage of global trade settled by US dollar has decreased from 70% at the beginning of this century to 34% lately. As a contrast global trade settled by RMB was only 2% of total.
The US stocks fell slightly.There is some disagreement among the Fed. Some thought that as the US was still in pandemic the Fed should only talk about tapering in months ahead. While others thought that it would appropriate to talk about tapering in June as economy recovery went well.
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