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周二A股縮量。上證指數上漲0.38%，而創(chuàng)業(yè)板指下跌0.73%。申萬28個行業(yè)中19個上漲，9個下跌。其中國防軍工、采掘和鋼鐵行業(yè)領漲，醫(yī)藥生物、建筑材料和電氣設備領跌。港股恒指、國企指數和科技指數分別上漲1.42%、1.43%和1.53%。恒生12個綜合行業(yè)全部上漲，其中能源和地產建筑領漲。首批9只基礎設施公募REITS上市的消息刺激港股上市的物業(yè)管理股票大漲。周三香港佛誕日滬深港通暫停交易，南下資金凈流入43.8億港幣。李寧和美團分別凈流入10.6億和8.9億港幣。

美元指數跌破90意味著什么？周二美元指數跌破90關口，創(chuàng)下兩個月以來的新低。非美貨幣包括歐元、英鎊和日元都直線上漲。隨著英國和歐元區(qū)疫苗接種速度提升，市場預期他們的經濟增速將會明顯改善。同時，美聯儲保持鴿派立場也意味著短期內加息的概率很小。這些因素推動美元走貶。美元貶值意味著新興市場貨幣升值，對于以出口為導向的許多新興市場國家，這將推動他們的出口增速抬升。同時，美元貶值也會推動資金流入新興市場的股票和債券。我們在2020年12月《港股明年大概率跑贏A股》中分析了美元指數走勢對港股相對A股超額收益的影響。一般情況下，美元貶值，即美元指數走低，港股的國企指數相對A股的上證指數有正的超額收益，即港股跑贏A股；而美元升值，港股的國企指數相對A股的上證指數有負的超額收益，即港股跑輸A股。我們去年12月判斷今年美元指數將會繼續(xù)貶值趨勢，因此，港股將會跑贏A股。今年1月到3月底，美元指數因受到美國疫苗接種進展超預期以及經濟復蘇強勁的影響從89.4167的低位上漲到最高點93.286。與之相對應，上證指數年初至今上漲1.61%，而國企指數下跌0.78%。周二美元指數下跌到89.7878，據1月的低點一步之遙。我們判斷未來美元指數大概率突破前期低點繼續(xù)下行，港股將會跑贏A股。

美股尾盤跳水。大型科技股下跌，大空頭做空特斯拉拖累市場。4月新建住宅開工數下降9.5%，折年率157萬套，預期170萬套，因原材料供應不足。

A-share mixed on contracted volume. Shanghai Composite Index rose while Chinext Index fell. 19 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with militaryand defense, mining and non-ferrous metal rising the most. HK stocks rallied with all of the 12 sectors rising. The news that the first 9 mutual REITS fund got approval for issuance sent the stock prices of property management companies listed in HK up. The south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 4.38 billion. Lining and Meituan saw net inflow of HK 1.06 billion and 890 million respectively.

What does that the US dollar index fall below 90 mean? On Tuesday the US dollar index fell below 90 for the first time in two months. The increased vaccination rollout in the Europe and the UK means that their economic growth prospects would improve. This pushed Euro and pound higher. And a dovish Fed means that interest rate increase would not come soon. Both factors pushed the US dollar lower. A depreciating US dollar is beneficial to the emerging markets. Firstly the emerging markets’ currency would appreciate and capital would flow into their stock and bond market. Secondly, export would increase in emerging markets as depreciating currency improves their competitive advantage. We found that if the US dollar depreciates Hang Seng China Enterprises Index would outperform Shanghai Composite Index and vice versa. From Jan. to March the US dollar index appreciated from 89 to 93 due to that the vaccination rollout was above expectation and economic recovery went on smoothly in the US. Yea-todate Shanghai Composite Index went up by 1.61% while China Enterprises Index fell by 0.78%. Going forward our best guess is that the US dollar will continue to depreciate and HK stock market would outperform A-share.

The US stocks dived at closing hours. Mega-tech stocks continued to fall at the news that a big short was shorting Tesla. The U.S. home construction in April dropped 9.5% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.57 million units versus 1.76 million units expected. 

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