周五A股和港股均放量大漲。上周（下同）上證綜指、創業板指和科創50分別上漲2.09%、4.24%和2.9%。申萬28個行業中，19個行業上漲，9個行業下跌，醫藥生物和休閑服務領漲，周期性行業領跌。港股恒生指數、國企指數和科技指數分別下跌2.04%、2.75%和4.9%。恒生12個綜合行業中10個下跌，只有醫療保健和必需消費上漲，原材料板塊跌幅最大。北上和南下資金分別凈流入27.1億人民幣和172.6億港幣。北上資金連續5周凈流入，南下資金是4月23日以來最大的周度凈流入。
不知道的不知道。投資人對未來的預測通常是線性外推。大多數情況下未來和現在不會有太大區別，因此，線性外推是合理的。但我們也經常遇到未來和現在的明顯不同，特別是在周期的拐點以及重大危機發生的時候。很少有人預測到2008年的全球金融危機，對于新冠疫情這種百年一遇的全球性流行疾病的發生，更是沒有人能夠提前預測。當然，更出乎意料的是雖然發生了2008年全球金融危機和2020年持續至今的全球性大流行疾病，前者發生后美股出現了持續10年的牛市，僅僅被新冠疫情所終結。后者更是見證了劇烈震蕩后美股在美聯儲的現代貨幣理論支撐下的持續走牛。所以，在知道的知道、知道的不知道和不知道的不知道中，最后一個是投資人最應該警惕的，因為很多時候不知道的不知道可能是決定市場走勢的重要變量。這時刻提醒投資人對自己的能力不要過于自信以及對總體市場要懷有敬畏之心。今年以來，美國經濟和美股表現較好。市場對美聯儲退出量化寬松的時間點不斷提前。按照以往經驗，美聯儲通常會先削減債券購買規模。因此，市場十分關注美聯儲縮減債券規模的時間點以及這個舉措對市場的影響。我們比較了當前全球經濟和股市與2013年美聯儲縮減債券購買規模時的表現，以及美國國債收益率當前與2013年時走勢的差異。我們認為這次也許不一樣，即美聯儲縮減債券購買規模不見得一定會引起美元上漲和資金流出發展中國家。具體請參見我們發表在微信公眾號楓瑞視點中的這次也許不一樣。
美股周五大漲。4月零售數據低于預期，市場預計貨幣寬松持續。
Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last Friday. Last week (the same below) major indexes in A-share rose while major indexes in HK market fell. Cyclicals fell the most in both markets while medicine rose the most as pandemic emerged in some provinces in China. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 2.71 billion while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$17.26 billion. North-bound capital has seen net inflow for five weeks in a row while south-bound capital last week was the biggest net inflow from April 23rd.
The unknown unknown. Investors usually extrapolate the future based on what happens currently. In most cases the future would not change too much. But when economic cycle is at turning point or major crises happen, the future would be quite different from the current. Among the known known, the known unknown and the unknown unknown it tuns out that the unknown unknown plays the most significant role in determining market trend. Few people ever predicted the global financial crises in 2008. It is impossible to forecast that COVID-19 pandemic would happen in 2020. The 10-year bull market of the US stocks after the global financial crises is totally out of expectation. So is the bull market in the US since March 2020. Currently market focus is on when Fed will taper bond purchase scale. We compared economic growth, stock market performance and interest rate trends in 2013 with 2021 and found that the US 10-year Treasury nominal rate and real rate went different directions due to that the inflation was at high levels this time. This never happens in history. So if Fed begins to taper, would the US dollar appreciate as what happened in 2013? If the US dollar does not appreciate, the impact of Fed’s tapering on the emerging markets might not be that bad. More details can be found in "這次也許不一樣" (this time might be different) published in our official wechat--Maple insight
The US stocks rallied. Retail sales in April rose 0% month-on-month versus 1% expected. Market believed that the lower-than-expected retail sales data would delay Fed’s tapering.
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