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周四A股和港股均放量大跌。周期股領(lǐng)跌。一方面周期股票近期漲幅較大，有獲利回吐壓力，另一方面國(guó)務(wù)院專(zhuān)門(mén)召開(kāi)會(huì)議應(yīng)對(duì)大宗商品上漲的消息也給板塊構(gòu)成壓力。阿里巴巴在2021年1季度因巨額罰款鞥上市以來(lái)首次季度虧損，美股下跌超過(guò)6%。北上資金凈流出56.4億人民幣，南下資金凈流入42.9億港幣，為連續(xù)第三天抄底。

通脹會(huì)否短暫上升之后回落？這是近期市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。周三出爐的美國(guó)4月生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)同比上漲6%，與消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)一樣超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，顯示美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)全面通脹的格局。4月超預(yù)期上漲的消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)一部分是由于供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)軗p而導(dǎo)致的，如因半導(dǎo)體短缺，計(jì)算機(jī)和二手車(chē)價(jià)格分別同比（下同）上漲4.1%和10%。還有一部分是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇強(qiáng)勁導(dǎo)致的，如飛機(jī)票和酒店價(jià)格分別上漲10.1%和8.8%。但是這些行業(yè)只占美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的7%。另外93%的通脹水平只上漲了0.3%，符合預(yù)期。貝萊德固定收益首席分析師認(rèn)為考慮到已經(jīng)和即將實(shí)施的財(cái)政和貨幣政策，新冠危機(jī)的凈結(jié)果就是通脹上升，至少在近期是這樣。金融和房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域的泡沫對(duì)應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的政策提出挑戰(zhàn)，如果政策不能夠及時(shí)調(diào)整，通脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將會(huì)提升。但是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將就業(yè)目標(biāo)放在通脹目標(biāo)前面，如果就業(yè)達(dá)不到目標(biāo)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能寧愿通脹上升。中國(guó)4月生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)上漲幅度也超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。當(dāng)前美國(guó)可能處在經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱期，而中國(guó)處在滯漲期。過(guò)去三個(gè)月美股和美元指數(shù)上漲，資金逃離新興市場(chǎng)。5月14日明晟中國(guó)指數(shù)收盤(pán)在104.81，從2月17日高點(diǎn)下跌20%。跌入技術(shù)性熊市。新興市場(chǎng)走向取決于美元指數(shù)。超預(yù)期的通脹數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)美元指數(shù)提供了支撐，但美元指數(shù)仍徘徊在90的低位。

美股上漲，結(jié)束了連續(xù)三天的下跌。投資者忽略了4月生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格指數(shù)超預(yù)期的消息。上周首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)為473,000,預(yù)期490,000。自今年1月以來(lái)，首次申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)已接近腰斬，反應(yīng)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇。受此消息影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇股上漲?？萍脊芍刑O(píng)果上漲，特斯拉下跌。一些分析師認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景確定，應(yīng)逢低買(mǎi)入。但也有分析師認(rèn)為應(yīng)權(quán)衡通脹前景對(duì)貨幣政策的影響。

Both A-share and HK stocks crashed on Thursday. Cyclical stocks fell sharply following the US market crash overnight. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 428 million while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$9.8 billion, which was 100% increase from that on Tuesday.  

Will the inflation be transitory? The higher-than-expected consumer price index is mostly related with the pandemic.There were factors such as supply chain congestion that added to the pressures.For example, due to the chip shortage computer prices went up 5.1% year-on-year (the same below)  and used car prices up 10%. At the same time, an aggressively recovering economy pushed prices for airline tickets (up 10.2% in April) and hotels (8.8% higher). But these sectors only accounted 7% of the overall economy. The other 93% of the economy rose 0.3%, just in line with expectations. Analyst from BlackRock believed that when factoring in all the monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been delivered (or shortly will be), the Covid crisis seems likely to be a net inflationary event, at least in the near term. The risk of overheating in multiple places across the financial and real asset arenas is becoming more and more of a realistic challenge for future policy, as some have suggested, and without an evolution of what heretofore has been policy reacting to emergencyeconomic conditions, the risk from this will only grow.

The US stocks rose. Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8, was 473,000 vs. 490,000 expected and an upwardly revised 507,000 during prior week. Continuing claims, week ended May 1 was 3.655 million vs. 3.650 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.700 million during prior week. Weekly jobless claims have nearly halved since the start of 2021, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era high of more than 6 million last year. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019. Reopening stocks rallied. Apple rose while Tesla fell. 

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