周三A股和港股均探底回升。A股汽車、醫藥和農林牧漁領漲，家用電器、公用事業和房地產跌幅領先。四部門召開房地產稅改革試點座談會的消息對房地產板塊構成壓力。港股恒生12個綜合行業中6個行業上漲，6個行業下跌，其中科技、醫藥和非必需消費行業漲幅居前，而綜合、地產和電訊業跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出4.28億人民幣，南下資金凈流入98億港幣，較前一交易日增長一倍。
超出預期的通脹和低于預期的社融。美國4月消費者價格指數同比上漲4.2%，為2008年以來的新高，高于市場預期。去除食品和能源的核心消費者價格指數上漲3%，市場預期為2.3%。美國10年期國債收益率上漲6.8個百分點到1.697%；30年期國債收益率上漲6.2個百分點到2.412%。銀行和能源板塊上漲，而科技股下跌。美國4月農產品價格上漲到9年以來的新高，而緩解只能等到下一茬農產品成熟之后，意即1年甚至2年以后。有鑒于此，市場有觀點認為通脹將會持續，而不是像美聯儲預期的那樣是短期現象。中國4月份社融存量同比增速為11.7%，廣義貨幣(M2)余額226.21萬億元,同比增長8.1%，增速分別比上月末和上年同期低1.3個和3個百分點；狹義貨幣(M1)余額60.54萬億元,同比增長6.2%，增速比上月末低0.9個百分點，比上年同期高0.7個百分點。4月份因為2020年的高基數，市場預期社融及貨幣供應量同比增速下滑，但下滑幅度超出市場預期。美國消費者價格指數上漲超預期，背后是強勁的消費需求。這對出口導向的新興市場國家是有利的。被稱為新興市場教父的馬克·莫比烏斯認為美聯儲肆意放水對美元儲備貨幣地位將造成威脅。在通脹高企的情況下，新興市場包括中國和印度值得投資。他認為應該考查個股的資本匯報率和股息率，而不是一味追逐價值股。我們認為中國回收流動性明顯早于美國，美元對人民幣很可能在2季度再次貶值，推動資金進入A股和港股。
美股大跌。道指創下1月以來表現最差一天，FAANG股票跌2%左右。通脹威脅下，資金逃離股市。恐慌指數三個交易日上升11個百分點達到27.59。
Both A-share and HK stocks bottomed out on Wednesday. In A-share auto, medicine and farming and fishery sector rose the most while home appliance, utilities and property sector fell the most. The news that governments held a conference to discuss how to reform the property tax hit property sector badly. In HK 6 out of 12 sectors rose with tech, medicine and discretionary consumption rising the most. And conglomerate, property and telecom sector fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 428 million while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$9.8 billion, which was 100% increase from that on Tuesday.
The higher-than-expected inflation in the US and the lower-than-expected money supply in China. The US consumer price index in April rose 4.2%year-on-year (yoy), the largest increase since 2008. Food prices in April reached nine-year high. Food inflation might continue until the next crop comes out in one or two years. So market doubts that inflation is transitory. 10-year Treasury yield rose 6.8 percentage point (ppt) to 1.697% while 30-year Treasury yield rose 6.2 ppt to 2.412%. China aggregate social financing in April rose 11.7% yoy while M2 rose 8.1% yoy and M1 rose 6.2% yoy. Market had expected that April money supply would grow less due to the high base in 2020. But the growth rate came out lower than expected. The higher-than-expected inflation in the US actually reflects strong consumer demand. The long-term investor Mark Mobius believes that emerging markets will outperform and recommends China and India as top choices.
The US stocks tumbled. DOW fell 1.99%, the worst day since January. FAANG stocks fell around 2%. The higher-than-expected inflation caused capital to flee away from the stock market. VIX Index, which measures panicin the stock market, rose 11 percentage point to 27 from Monday to Wednesday.
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