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周一A股和港股均是“煤”飛“色”舞。茅指數(shù)縮量下跌0.09%，為連續(xù)第四個(gè)交易日下跌。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中15個(gè)上漲，13個(gè)下跌。其中漲幅居前的是采掘、鋼鐵和有色，跌幅居前的是農(nóng)林牧漁、食品飲料和房地產(chǎn)。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中8個(gè)上漲，4個(gè)下跌，其中原材料、能源和綜合行業(yè)漲幅居前，而科技、必需和非必需消費(fèi)以及電訊業(yè)跌幅居前。無(wú)論A股還是港股，均是防御性行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌，而周期性行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。北上資金凈流入45.3億人民幣，南下資金凈流出64.7億港幣。其中美團(tuán)凈流出37.5億港幣，騰訊凈流出17億港幣。美團(tuán)被爆出外賣(mài)員工均為外包公司員工，引發(fā)投資人對(duì)資本沒(méi)有底線的驚嘆，進(jìn)而甩賣(mài)公司股票。

為什么美股能夠長(zhǎng)牛？2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后，美國(guó)非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)在2001年10月達(dá)到最低點(diǎn)40.5，2004年1月達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)67.9。標(biāo)普500在2002年10月達(dá)到互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后的最低點(diǎn)756.2點(diǎn)，在2007年10月達(dá)到此輪反彈的最高點(diǎn)1576.7點(diǎn)。也即非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)的低點(diǎn)和高點(diǎn)分別領(lǐng)先股市的低點(diǎn)和高點(diǎn)1年和3年，跟美股的表現(xiàn)相關(guān)性不太強(qiáng)。但2008年金融危機(jī)之后，二者之間的相關(guān)性有了顯著提高。非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)在2008年11月下跌到了最低點(diǎn)37.6，非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)從2008年11月低點(diǎn)反彈一路向上，在2009年10月升過(guò)50的榮枯線后就一直運(yùn)行在榮枯線之上，直到2020年4月因?yàn)樾鹿谝咔槎俅蜗绿降?1.8的低點(diǎn)。與之相對(duì)應(yīng)，標(biāo)普500在2009年3月達(dá)到最低點(diǎn)666.79，之后開(kāi)始十年長(zhǎng)牛。十年期間，非制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)僅在2014年2月和2016年8月產(chǎn)生過(guò)兩個(gè)低點(diǎn)，分別是51.6和51.4。而標(biāo)普500在這兩年里都曾經(jīng)短暫下跌。非制造業(yè)的持續(xù)繁榮支撐了美國(guó)股市的長(zhǎng)牛。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中服務(wù)業(yè)占GDP的比例在80%以上，而制造業(yè)占比僅為11%，后者受到經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的較大影響。而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中服務(wù)業(yè)的占比為54%，制造業(yè)占比為39.9%。相比美國(guó)，我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)決定了股市會(huì)受到經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的較大影響。

美股下跌。科技股領(lǐng)跌，投資者擔(dān)憂通脹上升壓制科技股估值。

Cyclical stocks rallied in both A-share and HK on Monday.Kweichow Moutai Index fell 0.09% with contracted volume. 15 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with mining,iron and steel and non-ferrous metal sector rising the most. 8 out of 12 Hang Seng composite sectors rose with raw material and energy sector rising the most. Defensive sectors fell the most in dual markets including consumption and telecom sectors. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 6.47 billion. Tencent and Meituan saw net outflow of HK$1.7 billion and HK$3.75 billion respectively. It was reported that Meituan did not pay its riders properly and its stock price crashed.

What’s behind the ten-year bull market in the US? In 2008 global financial crises Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the US found its lowest point 37.6 in Nov. 2008 and then went up to above 50, the threshold for expansionand contraction in Oct. 2009. It remained above 50 until April 2020 when COVID-19 pushed it to 41.8, the lowest after 2008 global financial crises. Accordingly,SP 500 in March 2009 reached its lowest point and then began a 10-year bull market. ISM non-manufacturing PMI briefly dropped to 51.6 and 51.4 in Feb 2014 and August 2016. SP 500 also fell in 2014 and 2016. The reason behind the US 10-year bull market is its economic structure. In the US service sector contributes more than 80% of its GDP while manufacturing contributes only 11%. As service sector is less affected by economic cycle than manufacturing sector, the US stocks can maintain long-term bull market. In China service sector contributes 54% of GDP while manufacturing contributes 39.9% of GDP. China would rely more on manufacturing than the US. Hence, its economy is subject to economic cycle more than the US. So is the stock market.

The US stocks fell. Tech stocks tumbled as investors worries that high inflation would drag down tech stocks’ valuation. 

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