周四A股下跌，港股上漲。申萬28個行業中13個上漲，15個下跌。其中漲幅居前的是鋼鐵、采掘和有色金屬行業，跌幅居前的是休閑服務、醫藥生物和食品飲料。抱團股大跌。港股恒生12個綜合行業中9個上漲，3個下跌，能源、金融和非必需消費行業漲幅居前，而科技和醫療保健跌幅居前。因為美國支持醫藥企業放棄疫苗專利，A股和港股的疫苗企業受到影響，股價重挫。
抱團股大跌。周四抱團股因不同原因再次大跌。跌幅最大的休閑服務因五一假期過去，炒作資金撤離。醫藥生物的下跌除了上面提到的美國放棄疫苗專利之外，還有醫美股的集體跳水，也應與炒作資金撤離有關。食品飲料下跌主要是白酒股和乳業股下跌，白酒股中的古井貢酒、瀘州老窖和洋河股份分別下跌9.98%、6.14%和4.78%，乳業股中的光明乳業和伊利股份分別下跌4.91%和3.17%。白酒股的下跌應是因為古井貢酒2021年1季報不及預期，引發市場對整個板塊的擔憂。港股餐飲股下跌，海底撈重挫7.4%，股價較2月17日高點接近腰斬。所有下跌抱團股的一個共同特點是估值較高以及基本面2季度可能面臨一定的挑戰。與之相對應，有色鋼鐵等低估值股票漲勢如虹。國際大宗商品價格頻頻上漲，為這些股票提供了基本面支撐。同時，對于通脹是否能夠短暫上漲而后消逝，市場存在一定的分歧。包括高盛和美國銀行在內的一些外資投行認為，銅價未來可能會持續上漲。而美聯儲則認為通脹將在4、5月份高基數和供應鏈緊張的作用下暫時上漲。這種分歧反而為大宗商品上漲提供了契機。我們判斷股票投資環境已經發生了很大變化，未來全球經濟有可能進入高利率、高增長和高通脹的環境。再用過去的投資框架進行投資有可能會錯失市場中的機會，而拘泥不變很可能造成較大損失。“芳菲歇去何需恨，夏木陰陰正可人”。市場風格變換需及時把握。否則，當你感到“蕭瑟秋風今又是”的時候，股票市場可能已經是“換了人間”。
美股大漲。上周首次申請失業救濟人數不到50萬人，為疫情以來的最低點，也好于市場預期。道指大漲300多點，接近前期高點。
A-share fell while HK stocks rose on Thursday. In A-share 12 out of 28 sectors rose with iron and steel, mining and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage sector fell the most. In HK 9 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and financial sector rising the most. Tech and healthcare sector fell the most. Because the US might forgo patents on COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine producers’ stocks tumbled in both A-share and HK market.
Group-holding stocks fell sharply. Stocks in leisure service, food and beverage and bio-medicine sectors dived on Thursday. The reasons behind are high valuation and that earnings growth of these stocks might miss expectation. We believe that economic conditions are changing from low interest rate, low inflation and low growth to high interest rate, high inflation and high growth gradually. The new economic environment would be more friendly to low-valued stocks than to high-valued stocks.Those investors who cannot shift their investment frameworks quickly might miss good investment opportunities and incur big losses. Fed believes that inflation would be transient in April and May due to the low base in 2020 and supply chain interruption from the pandemic. But some investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America thought that copper prices would see an upward trend lasting for years due to supply shortage and high demand from new energy. Hence, inflation might persist. Moreover, for 2021 developed countries along with developing countries would see above trend GDP growth rate due to the low base in 2020. For example, the US and UK would grow GDP at 7% and 7.25% respectively in 2021. China and India would see 9% and 11% GDP growth rate respectively. The global economy growth would see the fastest rate in 40 years. Ultimately group-holding stocks might no longer be the favorite ones in the market and their stock prices might suffer big retreat.
The US stocks rallied. The initial jobless claim last week was better than expected.
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