周三A股和港股再次探底回升。A股申萬28個行業中23個上漲，5個下跌,漲幅居前的為電氣設備、采掘和醫藥生物，跌幅居前的通信、計算機和輕工制造。恒生12個綜合行業中仍是7個上漲，5個下跌，醫療保健、金融和地產領漲，而原材料、電訊和非必需消費業跌幅居前。北上和南下資金分別凈流入20億人民幣和8.7億港幣。
擁擠的賽道。美銀證券發表研究報告指過去一年汽車股表現亦穩健，由去年次季至今年首季銷量亦見復蘇，該行對行業及股價表現看法轉向保守，認為下半年受基數影響月度銷售同比增速可能會放緩，投入成本上升和芯片短缺等因素會為智能電動車成本及經營開支帶來壓力。該行相信2020-2025年內地整體電動車銷量年復合增長將達26%，不過競爭將加劇。百度、小米及滴滴均宣布進軍電動車市場，鴻海亦成立MIH聯盟為初創如Fisker等提供生產服務。傳統汽車生產商亦會積極生產銷售電動車。領先的電動車企頻頻升級ADAS系統，以改善自動駕駛等用戶體驗,估計小鵬及理想今年研發開支將分別升73%及140%，以開發自動駕駛的運算及軟件。更多傳統汽車品牌將跟隨電動車企業步伐，增加投資以維持市場份額及競爭力。除研發外，目標建立高端品牌的公司在銷售及營銷開支上亦會較高。總之，汽車整車特別是電動車賽道有點擁擠，估值面臨下行壓力。做電池及電動汽車零部件的所謂“賣水人”是否能受益呢？我們認為“賣水人”目前估值水平較高，整車企業估值下調對其估值也產生壓力。
伯克希爾·哈撒韋的年會。周六備受矚目的伯克希爾·哈撒韋年會將在洛杉磯通過網絡直播進行。投資人關注在當前美股估值處在歷史高位的時刻，股神巴菲特如何看待市場。從以往年會看，巴菲特和芒格的回答基本都是讓投資人回歸常識，進行長期投資。如果不能持有一只股票一輩子，就不要持有一天。大道至簡，投資不是一時一日之功，而應該視作是一生一世的事業。試圖一夜暴富，在股市里很難有好收益。
美股小跌。聯儲議息會議符合預期，波音1季度業績低于預期。
Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Wednesday. 23 out of 28 sectors rose with electric equipment, mining and bio-medicine rising the most. Telecom,computer and light industry fell the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, financials and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB2 billion and HK$870 million respectively.
A crowded track. Bank of America (BOA) issued a report, in which it downgraded auto sector due to increased competition,rising costs and high base last year. Auto sector began to grow in positive territory from May 2020 till now. So from May 2021 auto sector would face a high base. BOA estimated that electric vehicle (EV) sales volume can grow at 26% per annum from 2020 to 2025 in China. But competition is increasing as Baidu, Xiaomi and Didi all enter this sector. Hon Hai formed an alliance called MIH to help produce Fisker EV. Traditional auto makers also hurry up producing EV. Moreover, EV players continuously upgrade their ADAS systems to improve users’ experience. Research and development costs for Xiao Peng and Li Auto will increase by 73% and 140% respectively this year. Both EV players will invest big in self-driving computing and software. This would make other auto players to follow suit. Shortage of chips adds additional pressure for EV.In summary EV track is becoming crowded. Will the battery and auto parts producers benefit from the increased competition? Their revenue and profit might benefit. But EV players valuation might be pressured with increased competition. So would the whole industrial chain.
The US stocks fell slightly. Fed concluded its two-day meeting and reassured the market that it will be accommodative and would not talk about taper soon. Boeing posted another quarterly loss and dragged DOW index down.
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