周四A股下跌，港股上漲。隔夜美股大漲對A股并沒有任何帶動，A股全天振蕩下行，小幅收跌。成交金額較前一交易日略所降低。申萬28個行業中17個上漲，漲幅居前的為鋼鐵、通信和電子，跌幅居前的為銀行、休閑服務和商業貿易。港股前一交易日大跌后，周四小幅上漲，成交量與前一交易日持平。恒生12個綜合行業中9個上漲，能源、金融和公用事業下跌。而醫療保健、原材料和科技行業領漲。北上資金凈流出10.6億人民幣，南下資金凈流入58.9億港幣，較前一交易日增加40%。
增長率陷阱。增長率陷阱是杰里米·西格爾在其著作《投資者的未來》中提出的概念。所謂增長率陷阱就是投資者對成長型股票支付過高的價格，導致投資收益下降。在增長率陷阱中，投資者追求激動人心的新產品、新技術，購買熱門股票和投資于快速發展的國家。但事實證明，新興的產業和公司不僅不能為投資者帶來豐厚的回報，而且他們的收益也比不上那些傳統企業。根據西格爾的研究，對于長期投資者而言，股利至關重要。股利再投資是長期股票投資獲利的關鍵因素。最近媒體報道一個長達85年的被動投資基金獲得了5000多倍收益，年化收益為10.58%，其中一個關鍵因素就是股利再投資。成長型股票都是低股利甚至不發放股利的公司。其次，股票的長期收益并不是由實際利潤增長情況所決定的，而是取決于實際的利潤增長與投資者預期的利潤增長之間的差異。這就是通常提到的預期差。對高成長股票，預期往往較高，一旦預期落空，股價就會在戴維斯雙殺下大幅回落。巴菲特曾用一句話回應追逐熱門股票：去火星探險是激動人心的，不過讓別人去吧。
歐央行對經濟的支持將會延續到明年。歐元區到夏季將會有70%的人口接種新冠疫苗，1季度經濟環比4季度下跌，但預計2季度經濟將會強勁增長，通脹也會上升。歐央行預計2021年的通脹水平為1.5%，低于2%的政策目標。歐洲央行內部有聲音提出削減債券購買，期望3季度歐央行削減債券購買規模，但也有分析師認為直到2022年歐央行才有可能開始削減債券購買計劃。
美股下跌。經濟數據好于預期，但資本利得稅將翻倍沖擊股市。
A-share fellslightly and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 17 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, telecom and electronic leading the market. Bankand leisure service fell. 9 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financial and utilities sector fell. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 1.06 billion. South-bound capital net inflow of HK$ 5.89 billion, up 40% from that on Wednesday.
Growth rate trap. Growth rate trap is a concept that Jeremy Siegel brought up in his book “The future for investors”. Growth rate trap refers to that investors pay high premium to high-growth stocks and this results in low return in the future. In growth rate trap investors chase those hot technology and products and buy high-growth sectors and countries. According to Siegel these hot stocks and sectors cannot provide the same return as the traditional sectors. Dividend reinvestment is a key for long-term return. But high-growth companies usually pay little dividend. Moreover, investment return does not depend on the real growth rate but on the difference between real growth rate and the expected growth rate. For those high-growth stocks the expectation is usually high. In case that the growth rate does not meet expectation stock prices would suffer Davis double-killing.
The US stocks fell. The initial jobless claimlast week was 547,000, better than expected. The news that Biden is considering to raise capital gain tax from 20% to 39.7% for income above US$ 1 million sent stocks to fall swiftly. European stocks rose as the European Central Bank would continue to support economy until 2022. It is expected that 70% European would get vaccinated by summer. While economic growth in Euro-region fell quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2021 due to the pandemic, economy would grow faster in 2Q2021 with the pandemic under control.
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