周三A股探底回升。受隔夜美股下跌影響，A股和港股均跳空低開。A股申萬28個行業中9個上漲，漲幅居前的為醫藥、銀行和休閑服務，跌幅居前的為鋼鐵、汽車和公用事業。港股主要指數跌幅在1.7-1.8%之間，恒生12個綜合行業全部下跌，其中能源、科技和非必需消費跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出10.6億人民幣，南下資金凈流入42億港幣，南下資金在港股市場大跌時抄底。
該恐懼還是該貪婪？不論市場在頂點還是底點，恐懼和貪婪是投資者一直要面對的問題。正如諾貝爾經濟學獎得主耶魯大學經濟學教授羅伯特·席勒所言：股市如戰場，投資者要做到知己知彼，但知己不易，知彼更難。投資者必需掌控自己的沖動，也需要洞察他人的沖動。當其他人恐懼時貪婪，當其他人貪婪時恐懼。如何判斷其他人是恐懼還是貪婪？有很多指標可以跟蹤，比如股價的回落程度、成交量以及基金的發行進度等。上面的分析其實都是和行為金融學緊密相關。相較于有效市場假說中的假設所有人都是理性的，在行為金融學中既有理性參與者，也有有限理性參與者。韭菜一茬一茬地被割，就是因為一波有限理性參與者被趕出市場，另一波有限理性參與者又進入了市場。做理性參與者需要逆向思維，跟人性對抗。一個被廣為傳播的股價曲線中，投資者往往在股價最高點最樂觀，在股價最低點最悲觀。當投資者覺得不錯的股票價格下降了，會不舍得賣出，想等到價格升了再賣，結果價格持續下跌，就更不舍得了，解套遙遙無期，而理性的行為則應該是及時止損。行為金融學也發現不常查看其投資組合的投資者會經歷更少的痛苦，從而能減少情緒帶來的影響，防止做出糟糕的決策——研究結果表明，如果投資者按月查看自己的投資組合， 而不是每天都得查看一遍，他們將會減少38%的損失。在投資者的行為偏差中，還包括過度依賴以往股票的表現來推斷未來的價格走勢等。投資線性外推往往是危險的。具體到當前市場，是該恐懼還是貪婪呢？我們認為總體市場的熱度較春節前有較大幅度的降溫，無論是從成交量還是基金的發行來看。很多個股短期回落幅度也較大。因此當前至少不需要過于恐懼，部分個股存在明顯低估，可以貪婪的。
美股大漲。市場全方位上漲。國債收益率回落到1.55%，原材料價格上漲，而美元弱勢，市場處在剛剛好的完美階段。
A-share bottomed out while HK stocks tumbled on Wednesday. Due to that the US stocks fell overnight both A-share and HK stocks jumped low. In A-share 9 out of 28sectors rose with healthcare, bank and leisure service rising the most and ironand steel, auto and utilities falling the most. In HK all of the 12 sectors fellwith energy, raw material and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 106 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.2 billion. South-bound capital bottom fished when HK market fell sharply.
Should we fear or be greedy? Whether the market is on the top or at the bottom, to fear or be greedy is always a question for investors. Just as Nobel laureate Robert Shiller pointed out, the stock market is like a battlefield and an investor should know him- or herself as well as other investors. However, it is rather difficult to know ourselves and it is even more challenging to know other investors well. Investors should keep herd instinct under control and observe others’ herd instinct clearly. When other peoplefear you should be brave and when other people are brave you should fear. The above analyses are associated with behavioral finance. In behavioral finance, some people are rational while others are not that rational. Investors are being played for a sucker one after another mainly because that they are not that rational. Investors are always most optimistic when the stock prices are at their top and the most pessimistic when stock prices are at the bottom. Now should we fear or be greedy in A-share? Several indicators to follow including fundraising, trading volume and how big stock prices fall, etc showed that A-share hascooled down quite a lot compared with what happened before the Chinese New Year.We should not fear too much. Some stocks are valued at low levels and worth being greedy.
The US stocks rallied. Market fired on all cylinders. 10-year Treasury fell to 1.55% together with a soft US dollar creates goldilocks for the market.
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