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周五A股和港股均上漲。上周（下同）上證指數(shù)和創(chuàng)業(yè)板指分別下跌0.7%和0.26%，科創(chuàng)50上漲0.8%。申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中12個(gè)上漲，汽車、采掘和食品飲料領(lǐng)漲，而休閑服務(wù)、銀行和公用事業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。港股恒生指數(shù)、國(guó)企指數(shù)分別上漲0.9%和0.45%，而科技指數(shù)下跌0.89%。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，能源、原材料和非必需消費(fèi)領(lǐng)漲，而科技、醫(yī)療保健和金融下跌。北上凈流入從前兩周的凈流出轉(zhuǎn)為凈流入247億人民幣，該凈流入金額為年初以來(lái)第二高，僅次于春節(jié)前一周的253億人民幣。南下資金連續(xù)三周凈流入，上周凈流入44.9億港幣，較前一周凈流入金額下跌36%。

1季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速略低于預(yù)期。我國(guó)1季度GDP同比增速18.3%，略低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，因疫情抑制消費(fèi)。2019和2020年兩年平均GDP增速為5%，低于趨勢(shì)增速。1季度出口超預(yù)期，但隨著國(guó)外疫情的好轉(zhuǎn)帶動(dòng)生產(chǎn)能力的提升，我國(guó)出口增速很可能會(huì)走弱。投資中的基建增速超預(yù)期，房地產(chǎn)增速保持穩(wěn)定。未來(lái)需關(guān)注投資和消費(fèi)增速能否彌補(bǔ)出口增速下降。我們判斷一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)走弱，貨幣和財(cái)政政策將積極應(yīng)對(duì)。

道指36000。1999年，詹姆斯·格拉斯曼和凱文·哈希特合著《道指劍指36,000點(diǎn)》一書。他們?cè)跁兄赋觯瑐凸善钡娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看是相同的。因此，為了讓股票與債券的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一樣，股市要上漲3倍。他們預(yù)期3-5年內(nèi)道指可以達(dá)到36000點(diǎn)。當(dāng)時(shí)道指接近10000點(diǎn)。但《股市長(zhǎng)線法寶》的作者杰里米·西格爾隨即在華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)上對(duì)他們的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了反駁。他認(rèn)為股票的收益率需要高于通脹保值債券的收益率。當(dāng)時(shí)，10年期通脹保值債券的收益率為4%。隨后一年股市迎來(lái)了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的破裂。而《道指劍指36000點(diǎn)》也被當(dāng)成是市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱時(shí)的熱血言論被人一笑置之。上周道指在經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和企業(yè)盈利超預(yù)期的好消息刺激下，首次邁過(guò)34000點(diǎn)大關(guān)。當(dāng)前10年期通脹保值債券的收益率為-0.77%。在負(fù)利率的支撐下，道指36000應(yīng)該很有希望近期實(shí)現(xiàn)。A股上證指數(shù)10多年來(lái)一直在3000點(diǎn)上下波動(dòng)。上證指數(shù)如果在當(dāng)前水平上漲2倍，有機(jī)會(huì)上萬(wàn)點(diǎn)。如果保持當(dāng)前估值水平，則需要企業(yè)盈利增速未來(lái)10年每年增長(zhǎng)12%以上。隨著注冊(cè)制的逐步推行，好企業(yè)將會(huì)成為市場(chǎng)的主導(dǎo)。我們認(rèn)為未來(lái)上證指數(shù)有希望保持一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的盈利增速。屆時(shí)A股上萬(wàn)點(diǎn)也不是夢(mèng)。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last Friday.  Last week (the same below) Shanghai Composite Index (SCOMP) and Chinext Index fell 0.7% and 0.26% respectively while STAR50 rose 0.8%. Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index rose 0.9% and 0.45% respectively while Tech Index fell 0.9%. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 24.7 billion, the second highest weekly net inflow year-to-date. South-bound capital saw the third week net inflow in a row at HK$4.5 billion.

GDP growth rate in 1Q2021 slightly missed expectation. 1Q2021 GDP grew 18.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, mainly due to that the pandemic pressed consumption. Export was still strong. But with the developed countries’ vaccination rollout faster than expected their production capacity would pick up, meaning China’s export growth might face some challenges going forward. Whether investment or consumption can make up the hole from export weakness is a key. If economy turns weak the monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive.

DOW rose above 34000.  In 1999 James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote a book called “Dow 36000”, in which they expected DOW to reach 36000 in a couple of years. They based their argument on that stocks can rise 2 times higher as investors face the same risk for investing stocks and bonds in the long run.Jeremy Siegel, the author of “Stocks for the long run” repudiated their argument by pointing out that stocks should have real return above 10-year TIPS bonds, which yielded 4%. In 2000 stock market crashed amid internet bubble. The book “Dow 36000” was almost considered a joke. Today 10-year TIPS bonds yield -0.77%.Last week Dow passed 34000 for the first time in history. With the negative interest rate it is likely that Dow reaches 36000 soon. In contrast SCOMP has been bouncing around 3000 for years. But if the listed companies can grow earnings at 12% per annum over the next ten years, SCOMP would reach 10000.

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