周四A股和港股均縮量調整。A股申萬28個行業中僅4個上漲，分別為有色金屬、采掘、綜合和家用電器，跌幅居前的行業為公用事業、休閑服務和非銀金融。滬深兩市成交量僅比昨日微增，處于年初以來的低位。深圳一家小型私募微明恒遠投資舉牌鋼鐵電商龍頭上海鋼聯，成為第二大股東，僅次于郭廣昌實控的公司。老牌私募艾方資產旗下產品則舉牌了小市值公司摩恩電氣，成為第三大股東。私募基金舉牌上市公司表明其看好上市公司的發展前景，其做一個財務投資人可以，想介入管理可能不那么容易。港股恒生12個綜合行業中7個上漲，其中原材料、能源和工業領漲，而科技、醫療保健和金融領跌。北上凈流入9.5億人民幣，較周三57.3億減少83.4%。南下資金從周三凈流入轉為凈流出5.5億港幣。
投資不能老看著后視鏡。我們可能正處在一個大變局的時代，看后視鏡投資會錯過很多投資機會。首先，通脹可能會持續上升。當前美國決策層對通脹的預計都是暫時的，不認為會發生持續的通脹。美國從2008年金融危機之后，消費者價格指數（CPI）年度同比增速最高是2011年，為3.6%，對應當年大宗商品和黃金的價格高點。之后一路走低，到2015年跌入負增長區間，-0.5%。2015到2020年新冠疫情發生之前，美國CPI每年的同比增速在1-2.5%之間。但是美聯儲最關注的衡量通脹的指標——個人消費支出平減指數PCE自2012年以來從未突破2%。事實上，在過去10年中該指標79%的時間是低于2%的水平，似乎確實存在一些根深蒂固的通脹阻力，使物價漲幅保持在較低水平。但自從新冠疫情以來，美國7萬億美金救市資金注入實體經濟，通脹有可能超市場預期。其次，美國40年債牛正處在轉折點上。美國10年期國債收益率從2020年8月的最低點0.5%，在半年多的時間上漲到最近的1.7%。如果通脹上升，利率也將持續上升。最后，全球2021年經濟增長和美國經濟增長都是過去40年來最好的一年，預計分別為6%和7%。中國經濟增速為9%，是2012年以來的最高水平。這意味著2008年金融危機以來的低通脹、低利率和低增長的經濟環境要轉變為高通脹、高利率和高增長。經濟環境逆轉，過去的好公司可能不見得是未來的好公司。
道指和標普再創歷史新高。3月零售環比增漲9.8%，大超預期。
Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Thursday. 4 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose, which were non-ferrous metal, mining, conglomerate and home appliance. Utilities, leisureservice and non-bank financials fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was only slightly higher than Wednesday at around RMB660billion. In HK market, 5 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material, energy and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 950 million, 83 % lower than the net inflow on Wednesday. South-bound capital saw net outflow ofHK$550 million versus net inflow on Wednesday.
To avoid looking at rear-view mirror in investment.We might experience a fundamental change in economy and making investment decision via looking at rear-view mirror would forego good investment opportunities. Firstly, inflation might persist rather than be transient. The US government has poured US$7 trillion into the economy, which is unprecedented and would cause inflation to go up for some time that could be much longer than expected. Inflation in the US has been remained at low levels after the 2008 financial crises. PCE, a key data that Fed observes as a measure for inflation, has been below 2% for 79% of time since the financial crises. Now that could change. Secondly, interest rate would go up with the inflation. In fact, 10-year treasury yield has increased from 0.5% in August 2020 to 1.7% most recently. The last but not the least, the global economy would grow robust in 2021 and might see the fastest growth rate in 40 years. Sowould be the US GDP, which is expected to grow at 7%. China’s GDP is predicted to grow at 9%, the highest since 2012. In sum, the economy of low inflation,low interest rate and low growth would change to high- inflation, high-interest-rate and high-growth pattern. Implication of good companies might change as well in this new pattern. It is wise to look forward in investment.
DOW and SP 500 hit record high. March retail sales was much better than expected.
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