崩盤季。近期因市場調整，年前認購基金的投資者遭受不同程度的損失，使基金的發行面臨困難。不時有基金募集失敗的消息見諸媒體。去年抱團股的擊鼓傳花游戲難以為繼，導致抱團股一個接一個上演崩盤。崩盤的另外一個原因就是個股估值較高，透支了未來幾年的業績。而抱團股閃崩的催化劑主要來自于業績低于預期。這是高估值造成的必然結果。沒有企業能夠持續保持高速增長，50-100%的年業績增速偶爾可以見到，但是長期保持是不可能的。所以，股價在高位時，很可能是市場將短期當成長期，將偶然當成必然，股價勢必面臨調整。周二盡管A股市場羸弱，但仍有9個行業上漲，其中農林牧漁、食品飲料和醫藥生物領漲，而休閑服務、鋼鐵和采掘領跌。
你的投資期限有多長？抱團股以及上世紀70年代美國的漂亮50均被認為可以持有一輩子的股票。漂亮50中的一些股票持有到今天，確實是幾十倍股。但是一個投資人能夠投資的年限有多長呢？股票投資者能做到像巴菲特持股幾十年的并不多見。但產業投資人包括一級市場投資人和企業可以持有很長時間，他們給予的估值也都比較高。一個例子是2006年百威以58.86億人民幣收購福建雪津啤酒。雪津啤酒的凈資產為5億人民幣，估值為12倍的市凈率，對照某著名白酒公司當前16倍市凈率。啤酒公司是重資產行業，用每百升企業價值（EV/hl）來衡量更合理。百威收購雪津的價格相當于100美金EV/hl，而當時中國啤酒企業估值約25美金EV/hl。百威收購雪津后，雪津的產能不斷擴大，從2006年的75萬噸擴張到2019年的200萬噸，銷售收入達到50億元。百威并購雪津的價格很高。但隨著企業經營規模不斷擴大，經營效益提高，十多年后看百威出的價格并不高。A股市場上也有一些來自一級市場的基金。他們采用產業的視角進行投資，不看重當前的估值。只要行業沒有重大變化，十多年后看他們所投資的企業最終還是能夠帶來回報。如果你也可以投入這么長的時間，高位買入好公司的股票是沒問題的。最終好企業會提供好的回報。
周二美股科技股大漲。美國3月消費者價格指數環比上漲0.6%，同比上漲2.6%，均超市場預期。美國FDA因罕見血栓癥狀宣布暫停接種強生公司疫苗。周三摩根大通、高盛和富國銀行將會發布2020年4季報。
Group-holding stocks tumbled one after another. With these group-holding stocks continuous falling those investors who bought funds holding these stocks suffered losses. This has made it difficult to issue new funds. Hence, the game to pass the parcel is over. That’s why group-holding stocks fell. Of course,another reason is due to that their valuation is way too high even after falling a lot from the high point. While the overall market was quite weak on Tuesday, there were still 9 sectors rising amid 28 in A-share. They were farming and fishery, food and beverage and bio-medicine. Leisure service, iron and steel and mining fell the most. The catalyst to the tumble of group-holding stocks is mainly from earnings disappointment.This is actually the fate of high-valued stocks. No companies can maintain earnings growth rate as high as 50-100% per annum. High growth happens occasionally not frequently. If investors extrapolate what happens in the long term based on the situation in the short term, then stocks would crash sooner or later.
How long can you invest in the stock market? In stock market it is not common for investors to invest for up to more than 10 years. But for industry and investors from the primary market their investment horizon is usually that long,if not longer. In 2006 InBev acquired Xuejin Brewery for RMB 5.9 billion, whichwas 12x price-to-book ratio (PB). As a contrast, nowadays a famous Chinese liquor company is valued at 16x PB. By 2019 Xuejin Brewery has almost tripled its production capacity and its overall sales revenue was RMB 5 billion. So given a long period of time investment in a good company is rewarding despite high valuation at the time of purchase. The question is whether you can hold a stock for that long.
The US tech stocks rallied. The US March CPI grew 0.6% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, higher than expected. Recovery stocks fell as FDA called for a pause of inoculation of J&J vaccine.
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