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周一A股抱團(tuán)股大跌打擊人氣。其實(shí)抱團(tuán)股下跌并不奇怪，估值高再疊加業(yè)績不達(dá)預(yù)期，總是有資金會拋售。但因?yàn)楸F(tuán)股上集聚的資金太多，所以引發(fā)的擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)對其他板塊造成較大打擊。上證指數(shù)下跌1個百分點(diǎn)多，但估值較高的創(chuàng)業(yè)板指和科創(chuàng)50均下跌超過2%。從行業(yè)上看，只有3個行業(yè)上漲，分別是公用事業(yè)、鋼鐵和房地產(chǎn)，其余25個行業(yè)下跌，其中有色金屬、輕工制造和化工板塊領(lǐng)跌。一些1季報(bào)業(yè)績增速較好的個股周一集體暴跌，側(cè)面反應(yīng)市場對其未來業(yè)績增速的可持續(xù)性缺乏信心。我們上周指出一季報(bào)不是真正的考驗(yàn)，二季報(bào)才是，主要因?yàn)槿ツ?季度因?yàn)橐咔槭莻€業(yè)績低基數(shù)，而去年2季度對很多受益疫情的企業(yè)是業(yè)績高基數(shù)。當(dāng)然，對于1季報(bào)增速就低于預(yù)期的企業(yè)，股價(jià)連續(xù)下調(diào)也并不令人意外，譬如某快遞公司。回過頭看，當(dāng)資本市場對其業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張歡呼的時(shí)候，其實(shí)就是其股價(jià)達(dá)到高點(diǎn)的時(shí)刻。

3月社融數(shù)據(jù)確認(rèn)流動性拐點(diǎn)。3月社融規(guī)模存量增速從2月的同比上漲13.3%下降到12.3%，人民幣貸款同比增速從12.9%下降到12.6%。M1和M2同比增速也分別由2月的7.4%和10.1%下降到7.1%和9.4%。3月社融新增面臨去年的高基數(shù)，2020年3月因?yàn)橐咔椋缛谛略鲞_(dá)到5.18萬億人民幣的天量。但是人民幣貸款同樣面臨去年的高基數(shù)，但僅少增了1186億元，反應(yīng)需求強(qiáng)勁，經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面并不差。考慮到美國流動性仍在擴(kuò)張，而我國流動性收縮，這種資金格局與2018年比較相似。2018年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)因?yàn)樘乩势諟p稅效應(yīng)增長強(qiáng)勁，而我國經(jīng)濟(jì)處于下行期，疊加貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和去杠桿，股市遭受重創(chuàng)。但今年情況不同，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速強(qiáng)勁。雖然2季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)因?yàn)榈突鶖?shù)而強(qiáng)勁增長，而我國因?yàn)槿ツ?季度是低基數(shù)所以2季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速同比不會強(qiáng)于美國，但是2季度我國仍處于補(bǔ)庫存周期。所以，今年不是2018年，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇至少在上半年看是持續(xù)的。今年我國收縮流動性是為了防止發(fā)生通脹和資產(chǎn)泡沫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，緩慢收縮流動性對市場的總體壓力不大。2018年我國去杠桿導(dǎo)致股市發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，資本市場“一遭被蛇咬，十年怕井繩”。但是2018年也是監(jiān)管部門的前車之鑒，我們認(rèn)為歷史不會重演。

周一美股從高位滑落。本周美國上市公司開始發(fā)布2021年1季度業(yè)績，市場預(yù)期業(yè)績增速將會比較強(qiáng)勁。拜登周一與議員討論2萬億美金的基建計(jì)劃。

Group-holding stocks tumbled on Monday. Group-holding stocks tumbled again and caused other stocks to fall with them. While Shanghai Composite Index only fell 1%+, the high-valued Chinext Index and STAR 50 fell more than 2%. There are only 3 sectors out of 28 rising, which were utilities, iron and steel and property. And non-ferrous metal, light manufacturing and petrochemical fell the most. Some companies in these falling sectors fell to the down limit despite that they released strong 1Q2021 earnings. This might because that the market was doubt about their earnings growth sustainability. We have pointed out that 1Q2021 earnings are not the real test but 2Q2021 earnings are because 2Q2020 earnings are high-base especially for those companies benefiting from the pandemic last year.  

Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) showed turning point in March. ASF grew 12.3% year-on-year (yoy) versus 13.3% in Feb. RMB loan grew 12.6% yoy versus 12.9% in Feb. M1 and M2 grew 7.1% and 9.4% yoy respectively compared with 7.4% and 10.1%in Feb. ASF in March was faced with a high base in March 2020, when ASF increased by RMB 5.18 trillion as government aimed to boost economy hit by the pandemic. Yet RMB loan only fell slightly compared with March 2020 although it was faced with a high base as well. This reflected that economy is quite strong.The US is still releasing liquidity and China is taking back liquidity. This pattern seems to be similar to that in 2018. Yet in 2018 China economy was on a decline due to trade war, destocking of inventory and deleveraging policies. China economy would be in restocking stage of inventory cycle in 1H2021 and would still grow solidly. We do not foresee what happened in 2018 to come back again. After all 2018 provides a cautionary tale for both stock market and supervision authorities.

The US stocks fell from record high. President Biden met with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to push US$ 2 trillion infrastructure package. The US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings results this week.

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