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周五A股和港股縮量下跌。上周（下同）上證指數、創業板指和科創50分別下跌0.97%、2.42%和2.19%。申萬28個行業中，11個行業上漲，17個行業下跌。其中鋼鐵、綜合和采掘行業漲幅領先，休閑服務、食品飲料和電氣設備跌幅領先，這些行業都是抱團股集中的行業。恒生指數、國企指數和科技指數分別下跌0.83%、2.14%和3.08%。恒生綜合行業指數中5個行業上漲，7個行業下跌。其中原材料、綜合和工業行業領漲，科技、能源和醫療保健行業領跌。北上資金凈流出53.3億人民幣，較前一交易降低46%。南下資金凈流入70.4億港幣，連續第二周凈流入。

中美3月份通脹抬升。我國3月消費者價格指數（CPI）由上月同比下降0.2%轉為上漲0.4%。其中，豬肉價格下降18.4%，降幅擴大3.5個百分點。非食品中，受汽油、柴油價格上漲影響，工業消費品價格上漲1.0%，為近一年來同比首次上漲。我國3月生產者價格指數（PPI）同比上漲4.4%，超市場預期。和上年同期相比，3月PPI漲幅比上月擴大2.7個百分點。從環比看，受國際大宗商品價格上漲等因素影響，PPI上漲1.6%，漲幅比上月擴大0.8個百分點。美國勞工部發布數據顯示，經季節性因素調整，美國3月份消費者價格指數環比下降0.4%，預期下降0.3%，2月份上漲0.1%；未經季節性因素調整，同比上漲1.5%，預期上漲1.6%，2月份上漲2.3%?？鄢称泛湍茉?，美國3月份核心CPI環比下降0.1%，預期上漲0.1%，2月份上漲0.2%；同比上漲2.1%，預期上漲2.3%，2月份上漲2.4%。美國3月PPI同比增長4.2%，超市場預期的3.8%，大超前值2.8%，連續第11個月上升，并創下2011年以來新高。

中美通脹未來走勢判斷。從3月份的數據看，中美兩國的CPI上漲壓力不大，但PPI上漲壓力較大。這與我們在2021年1月發表在楓瑞視點微信公眾號的2021年A股投資展望中預測的中美兩國CPI和PPI走勢基本一致。我國今年前三季度在豬肉價格下跌的帶動下，CPI不會有明顯上漲。但美國因去年4、5月份的CPI為低基數，當月同比增速分別為0.3%和0.1%。因此，今年4、5月美國CPI有可能會超過2%。而PPI美國歷史上看通常要在兩年左右達到高點（表一）。我國今年PPI一般12個月達到頂點（表二），今年2季度有可能見到。

表一：我國PPI上行周期

數據來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司

表二：美國PPI上行周期數據來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司

數據來源：WIND，北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司

上周五美股大漲。經濟復蘇股引領上漲，恐慌指數下降到17。

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell with contracted volume. Last week (the same below) major indexes in both A-share and HK market fell. In A-share 11 out of 28 sectors rose. Food and beverage, leisure service and electric equipment sector, which were group-holding stocks mainly from, fell the most. In HK market 5 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with raw material, conglomerate and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 5.33 billion,down 46% from the previous week. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.04 billion,the second week of net inflow in a row.   

Both China and the US saw inflation pick up in March. China Consumer Price Index(CPI) in March rose to 0.4% year-over-year (yoy) versus fell 0.2% yoy in Feb. Porkprices fell 18.5% yoy in March compared with 13.2% in February. Industrial consumer goods' prices rose 1% yoy in March, the first time to rise yoy in one year due to rising prices of gasoline and diesel oil. China Producer Price Index (PPI) in March rose 4.4% yoy versus 1.7% in Feb, mainly due to the rising prices of commodities. The US CPI in March fell 0.4% month-on-month (mom) and rose 1.5%yoy. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, fell 0.1% mom and rose 2.1% yoy.The US PPI in March rose 4.2% yoy versus 2.7% yoy in February. The US March PPI growth rate yoy has reached the highest level since 2011. The USPPI hasincreased yoy for eleven months in a row. The trends of CPI and PPI in both China and the US are basically in line with what we predicted in “Investment outlook for A-share in 2021”. For both China and the US inflation in consumer would not be a major concern in 2021, although the US will see CPI growth rate rise above 2% yoy in April and May due to low base.  But producer inflation would continue to rise in both countries.

Both Dow and SP500 reached record high last Friday. Recovery stocks led the rally. VIX Index fell to 17 from above 20.

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