周四A股微漲，成交量有所放大。申萬28個行業(yè)中，9個行業(yè)上漲，19個行業(yè)下跌。其中醫(yī)藥生物、食品飲料和有色金屬行業(yè)漲幅領(lǐng)先，公用事業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)和建筑裝飾跌幅領(lǐng)先。因一季度業(yè)績不及預(yù)期，個別股票大幅下跌。港股周四大幅上漲，恒生綜合行業(yè)指數(shù)中8個行業(yè)上漲，4個行業(yè)下跌。其中必需消費(fèi)、原材料和金融行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，能源、科技和電信行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流出17億人民幣，較前一交易降低40%。貴州茅臺和中國中免分別凈流出14.7和5.7億人民幣。南下資金凈流入47.3億人民幣，較前一交易日提升456%。騰訊控股股東減持股份，南下資金凈流入50.6億港幣。
一季報(bào)不是真正的考驗(yàn)，二季報(bào)才是。因去年受疫情影響導(dǎo)致的低基數(shù)，今年1季報(bào)超預(yù)期的個股很多。但是超預(yù)期不見得是股票漲的理由，低于預(yù)期卻一定是股票下跌的理由。近期一些抱團(tuán)股2020年以及2021年一季報(bào)稍微有一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)低于預(yù)期都會遭到機(jī)構(gòu)拋售。對于大幅低于預(yù)期的個股，股價(jià)在短時間內(nèi)腰斬近期也比較常見。我們認(rèn)為一季報(bào)僅僅反應(yīng)過去發(fā)生的事情。真正重要的是1季報(bào)超預(yù)期的個股能否在經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)正常的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)保持較好的盈利增速。而低于預(yù)期的個股能否證明1季報(bào)低于預(yù)期僅僅是一個短期現(xiàn)象。我們對去年2季度因與疫情相關(guān)而業(yè)績較好的行業(yè)保持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。這些股票今年2季度業(yè)績很可能會低于市場預(yù)期。一方面去年疫情導(dǎo)致業(yè)績高基數(shù)；另一方面，今年隨著全球疫情得到控制，對抗疫相關(guān)的產(chǎn)品需求也將呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢，這些公司的收入增速和盈利能力都將受到考驗(yàn)。因此，一季報(bào)對上市公司而言并不是真正的考驗(yàn)，真正的考驗(yàn)在二季度，特別是去年表現(xiàn)較好的行業(yè)和個股。
史蒂芬·羅奇質(zhì)疑拜登總統(tǒng)對華政策。前摩根斯坦利亞洲區(qū)主席指出盡管拜登上任之后逆轉(zhuǎn)了特朗普的許多外交政策，但保留了漏洞百出的中美第一階段貿(mào)易協(xié)定以及關(guān)稅。洛奇建議采取冷靜務(wù)實(shí)的舉措處理中美關(guān)系。周四美國商務(wù)部宣布將7家中國超級計(jì)算公司納入國家安全黑名單。中美關(guān)系真是“冰凍三尺，非一日之寒”。
美股上漲，標(biāo)普500再創(chuàng)新高。上周初次申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)為744,000，高于預(yù)期的694,000。10年期國債收益率從高位回落到1.6%，科技股上漲。
A-share rose slightly with increased volume on Thursday. 9 out of 28 sectors rose with biomedicine, food and beverage and non-ferrous metal leading the market. Some stocks fell sharply as their 1Q2021 earnings missed expectation. HKmarket rallied. 8 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with consumer stables, raw material and financial sector leading. North-bound capital saw net outflow ofRMB 1.7 billion, down 40% from Wednesday. Kweichow Moutai and China Duty-free saw net outflow of RMB 1470 and 570 million respectively. Thursday marked the highest net outflow of north-bound capital for Kweichow Moutai. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 4.73 billion, up 456% from Wednesday. Tencent’s stake-holding company sell shares. South-bound capital net bought HK$5.06 billion of Tencent.
1Q2021 earnings are not the real test. 2Q2021 earnings are. Due to the pandemic in1Q2020, many companies’ 1Q2021 earnings came in above expectation. Stock prices might not rise due to the better-than-expected earnings as the better performance was due to a low base. Yet for those whose 1Q2021 earnings missed,their stock prices fell sharply. 1Q2021 has passed. We believe that 2Q2021 is a real test for those companies whose earnings grew rapidly in 2Q2020 due to the pandemic. We are not optimistic regarding these companies’ earnings prospects in 2Q2021. Firstly, demand for pandemic-related products fell sharply this year as China controls the pandemic spread well. Secondly, the high-base last year would be a challenge for these companies. In any case it is key to grow earnings in a sustainable way for listed companies.
SP500 reached another record high. The initial jobless claim last week was 744,000,higher than 694,000 which market expected. Yet stocks rose with tech stocks rallying.10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.6%. Stephen Roach, a famous economist, expressed his concern on Sino-US relationship and suggested a level-headed approach from both sides.
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