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上周納斯達克引領全球股指上漲。全球16個主要國家和地區指數（包括主要發達國家和金磚五國以及亞洲主要國家和地區）除英國富時指數微跌外均上漲。從各國經濟領先指標看，大多超出市場預期。美國3月供應管理協會制造業采購經理人指數（PMI）達到1983年12月以來的新高，達到64.2。IHS Markit數據顯示，經季節調整后，歐元區今年3月季調后制造業PMI終值意外略上修，由62.4調高至62.5，為1997年6月有紀錄以來最高水平，且已連續9個月擴張。相比之下，雖然我國3月官方制造業PMI略超預期，但財新制造業PMI意外下跌到去年5月份的水平，盡管仍在擴張區間。反應我國經濟復蘇的動能可能略顯不足。

反彈行情堅守低估值。上周A股和港股均反彈。A股申萬28個行業中23個上漲，食品飲料、休閑服務和電子行業漲幅領先，而傳媒、非銀金融和商業貿易領跌。港股上周因受難節只有四個交易日，恒生12個綜合行業中2個下跌，分別為必需消費和公用事業，醫療保健、科技和工業漲幅領先。我們認為受經濟景氣度帶動，A股和港股有望繼續反彈，但不易對反彈過于樂觀。首先，核心資產的估值遠遠沒有達到合理的水平。另外，從上周發布的2020年業績看，有些公司的業績稍微有一點低于預期，就會遭到市場拋售，也反應市場對核心資產的風險偏好降低。其次，宏觀經濟好轉帶動美國國債收益率繼續上行。市場目前預期到1.8-2%的水平。盡管國債收益率上行最陡峭的階段已經過去，但是，未來如果上行幅度超出預期，對高估值個股仍有較大壓力。我們仍然認為低估值個股會有較好表現，包括銀行、周期以及受益經濟復蘇的板塊。從這個角度而言，我們認為港股將會比A股有更好的表現。主要原因是這些低估值股票在港股的估值更低，而且港股投資者更關注盈利恢復情況。而隨著全球經濟復蘇，這些板塊的盈利將會逐季增長。低估值和盈利持續增長的股票將會在今年占據優勢地位。

美國3月非農就業人數大超預期。受到服務業強勁復蘇的帶動，美國3月非農就業達到916,000，這是2020年8月以來的最高水平，遠遠高于市場預期的675,000。失業率也下降到6%。受這一消息帶動，美股大漲，道指和標普均創出歷史新高，10年期美債收益率保持在1.71%。美聯儲面臨采取緊縮措施的壓力。

Nasdaq led the global stock market rally last week. Among global 16 major indexes including major developed countries and BRICs as well as major Asian stock markets, only FTSE Index in the UK fell slightly last week. All of the other stock markets rose boosted by better-than-expected economic data. The US ISM manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index （PMI） in March came in as 64.2, the highest since Dec. 1983. IHS Markit PMI for Europe in March was adjusted from the initial reading of 62.4 up to 62.5, the highest since June 1997. European PMI has been above the threshold 50 for nine months in a row. China’s official manufacturing PMI in March was also above expectation. Yet Caixin PMI, which mainly measures the situation of the middle- to small-scale enterprises, fell to the level of last May but maintained above 50, implying that China’s economy probably doesn’t rebound as strongly as expected.

Stick to low-valued stocks in rebounding stage.Last week both A-share and HK stock market rebounded after continuously falling for weeks. We believe that low-valued stocks would be good choices in market rebounding. Firstly, the so-called core assets’ valuation is still at hefty levels. Some stocks’ prices fell sharply recently as their 2020 earnings missed to some extent, reflecting that market has become picky for these core assets. Secondly, the US 10-year Treasury yield would continue to rise as economy recovers quickly. Market expects it to reach 1.8-2% in 2021.Further increase of the Treasury yield would still weigh on the high-valued stocks. We believe that HK stocks would perform better than A-share due to low valuation and strong earnings growth.

The non-farm payroll in March was far better than expected.DOW and SP500 reached record high. Fed is under pressureto take back liquidity as economy is on good course of recovery and inflation is going up. Market implies that the first rate hike would be at the end of 2023 rather than 2024, as guided by the Fed. Moreover, before Fed raises interest rate, it would cut back on bond purchasing scale first. Market expects that Fed would begin to taper in the 2nd half of this year. 

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