周三A股和港股均下跌。A股申萬28個行業中11個上漲，比周二減少六個，其中建筑裝飾、公用事業和家用電器漲幅領先，國防軍工、休閑服務和有色金屬跌幅居前。貴州茅臺、三一重工和萬科A等公司因為發布的2020年業績某些方面不及預期，股價調整。港股12個行業中只有科技行業上漲，原材料和必需消費跌幅領先。萬洲國際業績不及預期，股價大幅調整。市場對公司業績要求高，顯示風險偏好較低。黃金價格從去年8月高點至今下跌18%。受此影響，紫金礦業A股和港股從2月高點分別下跌36%和41%。北上資金凈流出79億人民幣，南下資金連續第四天凈流入，金額為13億港幣。
經濟強而股市弱是因為什么？3月份官方制造業采購經理人指數（PMI）為51.9%，非制造業PMI為56.3%，分別較前值上漲1.3和4.9個百分點。3月PMI超預期上漲一方面反應經濟強勁復蘇，內外需皆強；另一方面反應2月經濟受疫情影響。PMI是環比數據，因此2月對非制造業而言疫情是一個低基數。但是，無論A股還是港股均走弱。背后的原因包括對經濟復蘇的信仰不足、3月信貸數據將顯示流動性會收緊以及個別股票的高估值。我們認為2021年是全球復蘇的一年，多個國家的經濟增速將會超出預期，甚至可能達到過熱的狀態。因此，經濟增長不是一個問題，可能增長過快會是個問題。再次，關于流動性的收緊，我們認為是一個緩慢的過程，不會對股市產生太大的沖擊。最后，高估值股票下跌對低估值股票的走勢影響不大。試想估值不到0.5倍市凈率的股票會受到100倍市盈率的股票估值調整到30倍的影響嗎？挖掘低估值價值股是應對今年股市波動的一個不錯策略。
拜登如期宣布基建計劃。該計劃為期8年，規模2.3萬億美金，包括6210億的交通基礎設施投資、4000億對老人和殘疾人的照顧支出、3000億對飲用水、寬帶和電網的投資等。拜登計劃將公司所得稅從21%提升到28%以及其他加稅措施來為該計劃融資。分析人士認為加征公司稅等舉措10年的時間才可能獲得1萬億美金的財政收入。所以，還得靠美聯儲印錢來融資，而這將會對美債收益率造成進一步的上漲壓力。拜登宣布該計劃后，周期、能源等股票下跌，科技股上漲。標普500創下歷史新高。小非農就業數據顯示2月私營部門就業創下去年9月以來的最大增幅。
Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Wednesday. 11 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with construction, utilities and home appliance leading the market. Defense,leisure service and non-ferrous metal fell the most. Some companies including Kweichow Moutai’s 2020 earnings came in below expectation. Their stock prices corrected, reflecting market’s low risk preference. Only tech out of 12 sectors in HK market rose. Raw material and consumer stables fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 7.9 billion. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 1.3 billion, which is the fourth day net inflow in a row.
Why the economy is strong but stock market is weak? Official manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in March came in above expectation at 51.9%. Non-manufacturing PMI in March was 56.3%, higher than expected due to February low-base due to pandemic. But stock market did not react positively to the data. Market doubted the sustainability of economic recovery. We believe that global economy would recover strongly with the pandemic under control. But there would be some periods when the pandemic resurges, the economy would be affected briefly. Liquidity would be taken back gradually as the central bank would not want to cause crash in stock market. The last but not the least it is true that group-holding stocks would continue to see valuation contraction. Some would see their price-to-earnings ratio from 100x down to 30x. But this would not affect those stocks whose price-to-earnings ratio might be below 5x and price-to-book ratio might only be 0.3x.
Biden unveiled infrastructure plan. The plan will span over 8 years with a total spending up to US$2.3 trillion. Stocks sold on news. Cyclicals fell and tech rallied.ADP data showed that private sector employment in February saw the greatest increases since last September.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
